Avatar 2 Isn’t James Cameron’s Big Risk – The Other Sequels Are

Betting against Avatar 2 would be unwise, but James Cameron’s remaining trio of planned sequels represent a genuine cinematic gamble. When Avatar first descended onto movie theaters in December 2009, James Cameron had a huge amount riding upon his environmentalist sci-fi opus. Directing Titanic might’ve earned him considerable sway in Hollywood, but as a big-budget original IP that relied heavily upon 3-D technology audiences hadn’t yet fully accepted, Avatar could’ve easily backfired. It didn’t, of course, and Cameron became the proud owner of two box office record-breaking behemoths.

Since the Avatar concept had been in gestation even before Cameron’s ill-fated voyage across the Atlantic, ideas for a potential sequel were already rattling around inside the director’s brain – alongside what to do with all of his incoming cash. When the scale of Avatar‘s success became apparent, 20th Century Fox couldn’t green-light a sequel quick enough, but James Cameron didn’t move with quite the same speed, and Avatar 2 has spent 12 years slipping from one calendar to the next, partly due to an extended scripting period of 4 years, and the development of technology required to achieve the director’s watery ambitions for Pandora. Cameron had already alluded to a possible Avatar 3 in interviews, but 2016 was the first occasion he publicly revealed plans for four Avatar sequels – a revelation later cemented by Fox announcing a slew of dates for future Na’vi reunions.

The movie world (indeed, the world) is greatly changed compared to the one that welcomed Avatar in 2009, and all four of James Cameron’s sequels carry a sizable risk factor. But while Avatar 2 can expect box-office domination once again, Avatar 3, Avatar 4 and Avatar 5 are where the real leap of faith happens.

Why Avatar 2 Will Be A Box Office Success

James Cameron might’ve needed 13 years to get Avatar 2 right, but that lengthy wait means all momentum from Avatar‘s 2009 debut has been lost to the wind. Children who stared through clunky 3-D glasses in awe of Pandora will now be fully-grown adults, maybe even with small ones of their own, while the younger range of Avatar 2‘s demographic weren’t even alive when the original hit. Stunted momentum isn’t the only obstacle Avatar 2 must overcome either, as critical opinion has skewed increasingly negative throughout the years, with detractors pointing out generic plots, lazy stereotypes, and Cameron’s “subtext is for cowards” approach to getting across his environmental message.

And yet, despite all the hurdles Avatar 2 must clear, the 2022 (for now) release is still as close to a guaranteed box office smash as you’ll find. What Avatar 2 lacks in 2009 post-release enthusiasm, it compensates twofold with plain old intrigue. Movie-goers aren’t necessarily chomping at the Teylu to see where Jake and Neytiri’s story goes next, but many remain curious as to what an Avatar movie looks like in 2022. After so long in production, and with Cameron offering cutting-edge underwater filming technology, there’s a real sense that Avatar 2 could change the game all over again. A sequel to the highest-grossing movie of all time isn’t something you see every day (well, maybe when said highest-grossing movie was Avengers: Endgame…), and that intrigue alone is enough to propel Avatar 2 toward box office renown. Perhaps not the same level of renown we saw in 2009 – an unlikely eventuality even without factoring in a global pandemic and the rise of streaming – but healthy, studio-pleasing profitability nonetheless.

Avatar 3, 4 & 5 Are Bigger Risks For James Cameron

The annoying bit about marketing a movie on intrigue, morbid curiosity and never-before-seen technology is that all three are only good for a single use. Avatar 2 is a big deal. It’s the long-awaited follow-up to James Cameron’s mighty, record-bothering Avatar; the culmination of a 12-year quest to film underwater actors in obscene clarity and detail; a first opportunity to prove whether the Na’vi are still relevant in the 2020s. All of that vanishes as soon as Avatar 3 arrives. Should the current slate hold, Avatar 3, 4 and 5 will adopt a more conventional release schedule, with Disney (who purchased Fox since in 2019) dropping a new movie every 2 years. That means no aura of newness around Pandora and its blue occupants, and no veil of mystery over the Avatar franchise’s direction. Without such a big gap between chapters, the difference between future Avatar movies won’t be anything like the inevitable leap between Avatar and Avatar 2, giving casual audiences less cause for curiosity.

Folks will buy a ticket to Avatar 2 based on reputation alone, and even if James Cameron’s sequel is a critical disaster, the director can rest assured his box office hot-streak won’t be adversely affected. The financial muscle of Avatar 3, 4 and 5, however, depends entirely on whether Avatar 2 is any good. The legacy of Avatar should be enough to fill theaters in 2022, but if audiences don’t like what they see, there’s no incentive to pay good money for three further installments – especially if Avatar 2 doesn’t address original movie criticisms. The sequel must balance stunning visuals with a stunning story, ditch the tired “white savior” tropes of 2009, and not be as reliant on gimmicks as Avatar was with its 3-D tech. Avatar 3, 4 & 5 will be nervously peeking around the curtain to see whether Avatar 2 falls victim to those same pitfalls.

Will Avatar 4 & 5 Happens If Avatar 3 Bombs?

Two or three movie sequels filming back-to-back is not unheard of (Peter Jackson’s Lord of the Rings trilogy, the first two Matrix sequels…), but rarely are four on the boil at once. Until James Cameron’s Avatar follow-ups actually start releasing, therefore, the franchise’s long-term future is a cinematic Schrödinger’s Cat – simultaneously happening and not happening. We know Avatar 2 and Avatar 3 are close to completion, but Cameron has confirmed some degree of production underway on Avatar 4 and Avatar 5 also. The scripts are written, and the principle cast members are fully aware of their four-film arcs. Moreover, the director claimed in a 2021 Variety interview that portions of Avatar 4 had been filmed during the Avatar 2 and 3 shoot.

A hypothetical situation, then. Avatar 2 releases in December 2022, making lots of money but getting torn to shreds by critics and audiences. Avatar 3 lands in 2024, and as a direct result of its predecessor’s failure, flops at the box office. Do Avatar 4 & 5 still happen, or does Disney pull the plug? Given the time and money already poured into Avatar‘s four-film future, the threequel would need to suffer a serious loss for the franchise to get cancelled, affording Avatar more leeway than most franchises get. Nevertheless, cutting James Cameron’s intended narrative short does remain an option, as the director himself admitted in 2017 that if Avatar 2 & 3 flop hard, he’s anticipating Avatar 4 & 5 don’t happen.

That was before Mickey Mouse showed Fox the color of his money, however. Because Disney acquired the Avatar franchise partway through the sequels’ production, any potential future losses may not be as significant compared to a studio overseeing all five movies start to finish. Mickey also has the option to shove Avatar 4 & 5 onto Disney+ should the preceding sequels under-perform, giving James Cameron a second chance to finish his story, but at lower financial risk. The director will undoubtedly be thrilled to see his groundbreaking visuals enjoyed on an iPad.

Why The Avatar Sequels Will (Probably) Still Be Successful

Avatar 3, 4 and 5 may be putting considerable faith in James Cameron’s ability to make lightning strike twice, but even without the curiosity and legacy interest Avatar 2 can exploit, all four sequels will likely find some degree of success. Cameron’s habit of repeated cinematic joy is no fluke – his films contain universal, timeless themes that resonate with mass audiences, and Avatar is no different. Even without story details, we know all four Avatar sequels will be visually stunning, and offer a rich sci-fi landscape to nourish the imagination. Brightly-colored aliens played by famous Hollywood actors will fly around on monsters killing bad guys, keeping younger audiences and casual newcomers deeply entertained, while Jake and Neytiri’s relationship plays to a more romantic crowd. Undoubtedly, Avatar will retain its appealing “underdogs triumph over adversity” central narrative, and Disney will, of course, be giving every Avatar theatrical release the full beans in terms of marketing.

Even if Avatar 2 offers a shallow story riddled with the same flaws as its predecessor, there’s only so badly a well-promoted blockbuster with high production values and themes that translate easily across nationality, age and genre can fail. For proof, one need only examine Avatar‘s recent Chinese re-release to see how the Na’vi still hold sway within the international box office. James Cameron’s plans beyond Avatar 2 may be risky, and the franchise may see dwindling profits as each sequel passes by, but Avatar‘s success thus far has been so great, four sequels surely isn’t enough for a total fall from grace.

About The Author

Craig Elvy
(3630 Articles Published)

Craig first began contributing to Screen Rant in 2016, several years after graduating college, and has been ranting ever since, mostly to himself in a darkened room. Having previously written for various sports and music outlets, Craig’s interest soon turned to TV and film, where a steady upbringing of science fiction and comic books finally came into its own.
Craig has previously been published on sites such as Den of Geek, and after many coffee-drenched hours hunched over a laptop, part-time evening work eventually turned into a full-time career covering everything from the zombie apocalypse to the Starship Enterprise via the TARDIS.

Since joining the Screen Rant fold, Craig has been involved in breaking news stories and mildly controversial ranking lists, but now works predominantly as a features writer.
Jim Carrey is Craig’s top acting pick and favorite topics include superheroes, anime and the unrecognized genius of the High School Musical trilogy.

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