Avatar 2 Won’t Beat Endgame’s Box Office, But Could It Beat No Way Home?

Although Avatar 2 most likely will not beat Avengers: Endgame‘s box office, the film could still outgross heavy hitters such as Spider-Man: No Way Home. After 13 years in the making, the sequel to the highest-grossing film in history will finally hit theaters this December. Avatar 2 will bring audiences back to the world created by James Cameron and promises to be the first of four Avatar sequels. Even with the release now closer than ever, not much is known about the story of Avatar 2 and the other sequels except that James Cameron will once again push the limits of moviemaking technology.

From 2009 to 2018, it seemed like no movie would come close to dethroning Avatar as the highest-grossing movie of all time. One of the strongest contenders, Star Wars: Episode VII – The Force Awakens, marked the return of one of the most famous franchises in the world to the big screen after ten years and even so ended up around $780 million behind Avatar. Four years later, however, came Avengers:Endgame. Both a sequel to the also member of two-billion-dollar club Avengers: Infinity War and the culmination of the Infinity Saga, Endgame claimed $2.797 billion at the box office and broke Avatar‘s record by nearly $8 million. Endgame would hold the record for eight months until Avatar was re-released in China and reasserted its place at the top with a total gross of $2.847 billion.

Although a new clash between the MCU and the world of Pandora approaches with the arrival of Avatar 2, this time, James Cameron’s movie will probably fair less well than Endgame and the first Avatar. However, that doesn’t mean Avatar 2 can’t rise high on the list of the highest-grossing films in history and that even recent hits like No Way Home can’t be surpassed. The results of Avatar 2 at the box office will, of course, depend on how the movie connects with audiences.

Why Avatar 2’s Box Office Probably Won’t Beat Avengers: Endgame

Similar to how Endgame was the only film capable of dethroning Avatar, some people may think that Avatar 2 would be the one to beat Endgame. However, that most likely will not be the case. The success of the fourth Avengers movie was not an unexpected phenomenon caused by the special circumstances, but rather the result of the long and meticulous planning of an event film.

From the moment Samuel L. Jackson appeared as Nick Fury at the post-credits scene of Iron Man, both Marvel fans and casual audiences could feel that something different was about to be created. With each solo adventure, the MCU indicated that it was building towards something bigger and that each chapter of the saga would be equally or more important than the last. The appearance of Thanos at the end of the first Avengers movie only served to confirm that idea even more.

With two Avengers movies at the time having made nearly $3 billion combined and dozens of other solo films in Phases 1, 2, and 3, the two-part story that would conclude the Infinity Saga was already guaranteed to hit before the cameras even roll. The shocking ending of Infinity War, however, made expectations for Endgame reach indescribable levels of hype that translated into one of the most fantastic box-office runs in history. In just five days, Endgame had already crossed the $1 billion mark as no audience member – avid comic book fan or not – wished to be among the last to know the fates of their favorite heroes.

While Avatar 2 benefits from being the sequel to the highest-grossing movie of all time, that alone is not enough to beat Endgame‘s performance. Although Avatar‘s cultural impact cannot be ignored, Avatar 2 will have to bet on its audience’s collective memory of a film released 13 years ago. Endgame, on the other hand, had a much more recent and urgent connection with audiences given the decade-long success of the MCU.

Could Avatar 2’s Box Office Beat Spider-Man: No Way Home?

A much more realistic goal for Avatar 2 would be to beat No Way Home‘s box office. Another “event film”, No Way Home that brought together three generations of Spider-Man had to face a pandemic scenario and, if that were not the case, it could have even rivaled Infinity War and The Force Awakens. Similar to what Avatar 2 will be, No Way Home was also a December release — a month that often sees some great best box office runs.

While the MCU Spider-Man series was already a successful one, with Spider-Man: Far From Home being the highest-grossing Spider-Man movie at the time, the multiverse element and the anticipation for the returns of Tobey Maguire and Andrew Garfield made No Way Home a hit like no other in the last few years. The film even surpassed Avatar’s domestic box office and currently ranks sixth on the worldwide top-grossing films list with $1.809 billion. Unlike the planned context of Endgame, the anticipation for No Way Home was a bit more casual and organic, driven primarily by rumors of a live-action Spider-Verse that began to erupt in the months leading up to the film. That is why beating No Way Home is a much more accessible mission for Avatar 2 than beating Endgame.

How Much Will Avatar 2 Likely Make At The Box Office?

Avatar 2 will need a strong, consistent box office run if it wants to live up to its name. Scheduled to be released about a year after No Way Home, Avatar 2 will find a much less aggressive pandemic setting than the Spider-Man movie encountered and perhaps have an easier time bringing people into movie theaters. With no leap in technology as big as the 3D experience that the first Avatar had, Avatar 2 will have to rely on the quality of its story as its main selling point.

All that considered, Avatar is still an extremely well-known brand. Once Disney starts the marketing campaign for Avatar 2 kicks out, audiences will remember the impact the first film had and will be curious to see what the sequel will bring. With audiences around the world regaining their trust in the moviegoing experience and wishing for a cinematic event worth paying a ticket for, it is not too far-fetched to imagine that Avatar 2 will manage to cross the $2 billion mark. Something around that range would compare to Force Awakens and Infinity War and could place Avatar 2 in the top five of the highest-grossing films of all time.

About The Author

Marcelo Leite
(190 Articles Published)

Marcelo Leite is a senior writer for Screen Rant with years of experience in creative and academic writing. Although his chosen field was structure engineering, there is nothing he likes better than writing about the things he loves.

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