Pixar’s next movie Turning Red going to Disney+ could mean Lightyear will also skip a theatrical release. The animated powerhouse has become a key part of Disney’s strategy for its streaming service during the pandemic. While the plan was for Domee Shi’s 2022 animated movie to be released exclusively in theaters, it has now been confirmed that Turning Red is heading to Disney+. As a result, there are now questions about Pixar’s other 2022 release: Lightyear.

Disney has developed a pattern over the last nearly two years when it comes to handling Pixar’s new movies. Onward was one of the early casualties of movie theaters shutting down in early 2020, so Disney released it early on its streaming service. This has become the norm for Pixar, as Soul arrived exclusively on Disney+ in late 2020. The studio’s lone 2021 release Luca also received a streaming-only release, despite Disney releasing other films in theaters and via Premier Access on Disney+. Now that Turning Red is continuing Pixar’s move to streaming, it is possible that Lightyear follows suit.

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Currently slated for a theatrical exclusive release in June 2022, Lightyear tells the story of the movie franchise that inspired Toy Story‘s Buzz Lightyear action figures. It stars Chris Evans and is expected to be a massive hit for Pixar and Disney, as long as it does retain a theatrical release. Due to Disney’s treatment of Turning Red and Pixar’s three prior movies, it is possible that Lightyear will also release exclusively on Disney+ instead. However, the better bet is that the Toy Story-adjacent movie remains a theatrical release due to its connection to a major IP. Lightyear is clearly different from the studio’s usual projects that are built on original worlds and explore important themes about humanity. While it might have some of those elements as Buzz travels the galaxy, it isn’t a new property that audiences don’t recognize – and Spider-Man: No Way Home‘s box office reinforces IP is king.

It is possible that Lightyear won’t get a theatrical exclusive release, though. Disney has experimented with a Premier Access rollout for various titles, which requires Disney+ subscribers to pay an additional $29.99 to digitally own a particular movie. Pixar’s previous movies haven’t received that type of release, as they’ve all been made available for free to subscribers. However, with Black Widow showing the financial potential of a simultaneous theatrical and streaming release, Disney could revisit the idea with Lightyear. This will become a more plausible outcome depending on how the pandemic evolves leading up to Lightyear‘s release. If families are hesitant to go out in the summer, Disney could give them a stay-at-home option then – even if it raises the likelihood and quality of pirating.

Ultimately, it is difficult to imagine Lightyear releasing on Disney+ exclusively or for free. A theatrical release is still the most likely outcome for the movie, even as Turning Red moves to streaming. This potentially is an unfortunate sign of Pixar’s future as a studio. While Turning Red and other original movies have gone straight to Disney+, Lightyear‘s connection to Pixar’s biggest franchise should factor heavily into why the studios want to keep it in theaters. This could be how Pixar evolves moving forward, with original movies and ideas tested out on Disney+, while projects connected to established IP will be deemed big enough for theatrical releases.

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